Northern Lights Statistics 2026: Solar Cycle Data & Aurora Probability
This page compiles the essential data on northern lights activity — solar cycle status, aurora probability by latitude, and historical records. Designed as a reference for trip planning and aurora chasers.
Solar Cycle 25: Current Status
Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019 and is currently near its solar maximum — the peak of the 11-year cycle when sunspot activity and aurora frequency are highest.
Key Data Points (2026)
- Cycle phase: Solar maximum / early declining phase
- Smoothed sunspot number: ~180–200 (well above initial predictions of ~115)
- Predicted peak: Late 2024–early 2026 (revised upward)
- Implication for aurora: 2026 is one of the best years in a decade for northern lights viewing. Stronger, more frequent, and more vivid displays.
Solar Cycle 25 vs Historical Cycles
| Cycle | Peak Year | Peak Sunspot Number | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1958 | 285 | Strongest recorded |
| 22 | 1989 | 212 | Very strong |
| 21 | 1979 | 233 | Very strong |
| 23 | 2001 | 180 | Strong |
| 25 | 2024-26 | ~180-200 | Strong |
| 24 | 2014 | 116 | Weak |
Kp Index Explained
The Kp index measures global geomagnetic activity on a scale of 0–9. It's the primary metric for predicting aurora visibility.
| Kp | Level | Aurora Visibility |
|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | Quiet | No visible aurora except at very high latitudes (>70°N) |
| 2–3 | Low | Visible from Arctic locations (>66°N) — faint green band |
| 4 | Moderate | Good displays at 64–70°N, faint from 60–64°N |
| 5 | Active | Strong displays across Scandinavia, visible from Scotland |
| 6 | Storm | Visible from northern England, Netherlands, northern Germany |
| 7 | Strong storm | Visible from central Europe, northern US |
| 8 | Severe storm | Visible from southern Europe, mid-US (rare, ~4/year) |
| 9 | Extreme storm | Visible from tropics (extremely rare, ~1/decade) |
Kp Distribution (Annual Average)
- Kp 0–2: ~60% of the time
- Kp 3–4: ~25% of the time
- Kp 5+: ~12% of the time (during solar maximum)
- Kp 7+: ~2% of the time
- Kp 9: ~0.1% (once every few years)
Aurora Probability by Latitude
The auroral oval — the ring of maximum aurora activity — typically sits at 65–70° geomagnetic latitude. Your viewing probability depends on how close you are to this oval.
Nightly Clear-Sky Aurora Probability (Peak Season, Oct–Mar)
| Latitude | Example Location | Kp 2+ | Kp 4+ | Kp 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78°N | Svalbard | 90%+ | 70% | 30% |
| 70°N | Tromsø, Hammerfest | 80% | 50% | 20% |
| 69°N | Alta, Lofoten | 75% | 45% | 18% |
| 67°N | Bodø, Arctic Circle | 60% | 35% | 15% |
| 66°N | Rovaniemi, Abisko | 55% | 30% | 12% |
| 65°N | Akureyri, Yellowknife | 50% | 28% | 10% |
| 64°N | Reykjavik, Fairbanks | 40% | 22% | 8% |
| 62°N | Oulu, Anchorage | 25% | 15% | 6% |
| 60°N | Oslo, Helsinki | 10% | 8% | 4% |
| 58°N | Edinburgh, Orkney | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| 56°N | Glasgow, Copenhagen | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 52°N | London, Amsterdam | <1% | <1% | 1% |
Geomagnetic vs Geographic Latitude
A crucial detail: the auroral oval follows geomagnetic latitude, not geographic. The geomagnetic North Pole is in northern Canada (approximately 80°N, 73°W), which means:
- North America is shifted ~10° closer to the auroral oval. Yellowknife at 62°N geographic behaves like ~69°N geomagnetic.
- Northern Europe is shifted ~5° further from the oval. Tromsø at 69.6°N geographic is ~66°N geomagnetic.
Historical Records
Strongest Geomagnetic Storms
| Date | Kp | Name | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1859 Sep 1–2 | Est. 9+ | Carrington Event | Aurora visible from Caribbean, telegraph fires |
| 1989 Mar 13–14 | 9 | Quebec Blackout | Aurora visible from Florida, power grid failure |
| 2003 Oct 29–31 | 9 | Halloween Storms | Aurora visible from Texas, Mediterranean |
| 2024 May 10–11 | 9 | May 2024 Storm | Aurora visible from across Europe, Southern US |
| 2015 Mar 17 | 8 | St. Patrick's Day Storm | Spectacular displays across Scandinavia |
Furthest South Sightings
- Carrington Event (1859): Aurora reported from Colombia (7°N), Honolulu (21°N)
- May 2024 Storm: Aurora visible from Barcelona (41°N), San Diego (32°N)
- Halloween 2003: Aurora visible from Florida (27°N)
Monthly Aurora Activity
Aurora frequency varies through the year due to the Russell-McPherron effect — Earth's magnetic field is more "open" to solar wind near the equinoxes.
Monthly Probability (Kp 4+ Events)
| Month | Relative Activity | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| January | ★★★☆☆ | Good. Maximum darkness in the Arctic. |
| February | ★★★☆☆ | Good. Improving weather, long nights. |
| March | ★★★★★ | Peak. Equinox effect boosts geomagnetic activity. |
| April | ★★★★☆ | High activity but rapidly shortening nights. |
| May–July | ★☆☆☆☆ | Midnight sun — too bright to see aurora in most destinations. |
| August | ★★☆☆☆ | Season begins late August in northern locations. |
| September | ★★★★★ | Peak. Equinox effect. Dark enough from ~9 PM. |
| October | ★★★★☆ | Excellent. Good darkness, milder temperatures. |
| November | ★★★☆☆ | Good. Increasing darkness, colder temperatures. |
| December | ★★★☆☆ | Good but holiday crowds. Polar night in far north. |
Data Sources
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — swpc.noaa.gov — Real-time Kp index, aurora forecasts
- University of Alaska Fairbanks — Aurora forecast and activity archive
- Finnish Meteorological Institute — All-sky camera network, magnetometer data
- SILSO (Royal Observatory of Belgium) — Sunspot number database
- British Geological Survey — UK aurora alerts and geomagnetic data
Live Aurora Data
PolarTourist integrates live aurora data from NOAA:
- Current Kp index shown on every page
- Aurora forecast bar appears when Kp reaches 4+
- Aurora Alerts — sign up for email notifications
Frequently Asked Questions
Is 2026 a good year for northern lights?
Excellent. Solar Cycle 25 is at or near its maximum, meaning more frequent and stronger aurora displays than any year since 2003.How many years until the next solar maximum?
Solar maxima occur approximately every 11 years. After the current peak (2024–2026), activity will decline through ~2030, with the next minimum around 2030–2031 and next maximum around 2035–2036.Can the northern lights be predicted?
Short-term: yes, 1–3 days ahead using solar wind data. The NOAA 3-day forecast is reliable. Long-term: only in general terms (solar maximum = more aurora). Individual displays can't be predicted weeks ahead.What Kp do I need to see aurora from [my location]?
- Tromsø/Fairbanks: Kp 2+ (very frequent)
- Reykjavik/Rovaniemi: Kp 3+ (frequent)
- Edinburgh/Anchorage: Kp 5+ (occasional)
- London/Amsterdam: Kp 7+ (rare, a few times per year during solar max)
- Paris/New York: Kp 8+ (very rare)